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We have entered an era where stories of people “getting married through a dating app” are no longer uncommon. Online dating, once lumped together under the label “online dating sites” and associated with a sense of shame, has now become one of the most common ways to find a partner. This shift is particularly the same in Japan. A survey conducted in fiscal year 2024 revealed that “dating apps (25.1%)” were the top place where married people met their spouses.
As the global dating app market enters a mature phase and interest in AI advancements and the Singularity grows, I find myself wondering where the “next-generation dating service” will emerge. My hypothesis is that it is highly likely to emerge from Japan’s ecosystem.
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First, let’s take a look at the overall picture of the global dating app market. While market size estimates vary depending on the research firm, the global dating app market is estimated to have exceeded $6 billion in revenue in 2024 and is projected to continue growing at 7–8%(AAR) through 2030. The number of app users worldwide has surpassed 300M.
The leaders in this market have been Tinder and Bumble. The UI revolution known as “swiping,” introduced by Tinder, subsequently spread to nearly all dating apps. The user experience of narrowing down potential matches simply by swiping left or right aligned with the behavioral patterns of mobile users at the time and drove its global adoption.
A notable global trend in recent years is the active use of AI. Tinder launched “Chemistry,” an AI-powered matching feature that analyzes profiles, activity history, and camera rolls. Bumble has also introduced "Deception Detector," an AI-powered feature that detects fraudulent profiles, claiming it can automatically identify suspicious accounts with approximately 95% accuracy. From swiping to AI personalization, the intellectualization of matching has become a major theme.
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Turning to the Japanese market, the dating app market size in 2025 is estimated to have reached approximately $63.9M, and is projected to expand to $86.3M by 2030. The number of operating companies increased in six years, from 5 in 2019 to 25~30 in 2025.
However, the market structure is rapidly becoming oligopolistic. The top five alone account for 75% of the total market share. While the overall market is growing, it has entered a phase where “not everyone can win.” Although the number of players is increasing, the momentum of new entrants is slowing.
The leading players in the current domestic market include “Pairs”, “Tapple”, and “With”. Each app has a distinct user base and purpose, and users tend to switch between multiple apps depending on their specific goals.
Tinder is one such app, but what is interesting is that Tinder’s position in Japan differs from its global one. While it is recognized in the West as a platform for “finding an ideal partner,” in Japan, it tends to attract users seeking relatively casual relationships.
As a unique dating app, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government launched its own AI matching system, “TOKYO Enmusubi,” as part of its marriage support initiatives in 2024. The system requires users to register a certificate of single status, identification documents, and proof of annual income, and uses an AI algorithm based on a values assessment test to introduce compatible partners.
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It is not uncommon for some users of these dating apps to fall into so-called “swipe fatigue” or “matching fatigue” due to repeatedly engaging in relationship-oriented communication from the very first encounter. Consequently, attention is now turning to apps with a social focus that offer more relaxed and casual opportunities to meet people.
One new matching app that originated overseas and has gradually gained recognition in Japan is the French-based “Timeleft.” This service offers six strangers the opportunity to share a dinner at a restaurant in a pre-designated area every Wednesday night, and it currently operates in over 200 cities across 52 countries worldwide.
There are countless other matching apps with novel concepts, such as “222” (not yet available in Japan), which partners with local brick-and-mortar stores and is designed to help young users rediscover their own neighborhoods and meet new people through unique social experiences.
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Although the domestic Japanese matching market is an attractive one for overseas entrepreneurs and investors, the reason it hasn’t received much attention is likely because they can foresee a shrinking market size due to Japan’s declining population, or simply because they lack a comprehensive understanding of the market as a whole.
However, I would like to emphasize here that in the AGI era, when it comes to providing matchmaking services, Japan possesses an ecosystem with accumulated unique assets not found in other markets.
First is the abundance of user behavior data. There are currently over 100 matching services in Japan, categorized in detail into areas such as marriage hunting, dating, remarriage, seniors, career-specific, hobby-specific, and services for married individuals. The fact that Japanese users have actively chosen among such a diverse range of categories implies an extremely rich dataset regarding the question of “what factors make people want to connect with others.”
Second is the expertise in safety and security. In Japan, a framework of industry self-regulation has been established, including regulations for matching apps based on the Act on Specified Commercial Transactions and the IMS certification system (Internet-based Marriage Introduction Service Certification). Security and safety are fundamental challenges for next-generation matching services in the AI Agent era, and the expertise cultivated in Japan holds export value.
Third is the opportunity for public-private partnerships created by the challenge of Japan’s declining birthrate. Matchmaking support as a measure to address the declining birthrate is an area where the national and local governments are investing budgets, offering room for new B2G business development.
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Matching apps, which cater to a variety of human purposes, fundamentally address the universal need for human connection. Romance is merely one category among many.
As AI evolves, particularly as we approach AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), much labor will be automated, and the time available for family, friends, and personal hobbies will increase. Even in Japan, the phrase “three-day workweek” is gradually gaining traction, signifying that people will have more time to engage with their “leisure.”
What will people do with this newfound time? Historically, as affluence increases, people tend to seek “meaningful relationships.” Rather than merely consuming entertainment, there is a growing potential for a heightened desire for creative collaboration, social good, and participation in new communities that align with one’s interests.
It is only natural to believe that the next generation of matching services will increasingly value solutions with strong social elements.
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1. Matching Based on Brain Waves (From Shared Goals to Shared Wavelengths)
Current matching apps judge compatibility based on the degree of alignment between “criteria” such as appearance, occupation, annual income, hobbies, and values, and goals. However, humans are not that simple; complex values, daily moods, and even scent cannot be reflected in an app profile.
Just as Japanese people often say, “It’s important to be on the same wavelength in relationships,” an approach that measures compatibility at the level of “wavelength”—such as the rhythm of thought, patterns of humor, and timing in conversation—could be the next evolutionary step.
In this regard, AI-driven conversation pattern analysis, emotional analysis of voice data, and even future integration with BCI (Brain-Computer Interface) devices are on the horizon. We are likely to move from “meeting based on specific criteria” to a scientific approach of “searching for partners who resonate at the brainwave level.”
2. Cross-Domain Matching
One thing I noticed when I attended the Vibe Coding event held in Tokyo the other day was the diverse audience. In other words, it created connections not only among professionals such as entrepreneurs and engineers, but also across industries that rarely interact, such as game developers, VFX artists, music composers, and fashion models.
Creative collaboration often arises between professionals from different fields, and matching platforms that incorporate this into their design have the potential to foster a new culture of creativity.
3. AR Device-Integrated Matching
As AR devices like Apple Vision Pro and Meta’s smart glasses become widely adopted, the context of matching could change significantly. While in the real world, information about nearby “matching candidates” could be overlaid, or features could emerge that indicate the presence of people with shared interests in real time. This represents an evolution from “swiping on a screen” to “encounters that blend into daily life.”
4. More Natural, Human-Centric Matching
This returns to the fundamental goal of creating spaces where people can first meet “as human beings.” While the advent of smartphones led to the concept of “digital detox,” service designs that reduce digital elements and return to analog experiences are expected to gain even greater value in response to the rapid evolution of AI. If designed for the Japanese market, combining these services with uniquely Japanese cultural contexts—such as “food,” “art,” “onsen,” and “strolling through the city”—should give rise to new forms.
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Given these changes, the business model of dating apps itself may be fundamentally reevaluated.
The current structure is simple. Users pay the company that develops and operates the app, and that company uses its algorithms to present potential matches. The platform company owns the data, and users operate solely within that “garden.”
In the age of AGI, one scenario is that information such as user attributes, values, behavioral history, and conversation patterns will not be confined to a specific platform but will be recorded on a tamper-resistant foundation like blockchain. This information will be linked to an encrypted personal ID, and only the individual can register, update, and manage it. This means users themselves hold the right to set disclosure parameters and can autonomously control what they show to whom.
Operating within this framework is the Matching AI Agent. Users pay not the app company, but an AI agent that works exclusively for them. The agent accesses the user’s data and searches across all categories—whether for romantic partners, friends, or business partners—to identify and propose the most suitable matches. Dependence on platforms will fade, and the question of “which app to use” will lose its meaning.
How do you think the way we build relationships with others will change in the future?
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